{"id":1028,"date":"2023-02-24T17:50:52","date_gmt":"2023-02-24T17:50:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/?page_id=1028"},"modified":"2025-06-10T01:37:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T01:37:26","slug":"monte-carlo-simulations-to-derive-tow-route-criteria-2022","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/?page_id=1028","title":{"rendered":"Monte Carlo Simulations to derive Tow Route Criteria (2022)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Background<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tow Route Criteria was required to assist in a transportation from India to Oman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scope of work<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CA Metocean was appointed by Sea Delta Marine &amp; Offshore to provide MetOcean criteria for two route options. Deliverables for the routes included the non-cyclonic 90<sup>th<\/sup> 95<sup>th<\/sup> and 99<sup>th<\/sup> percentile levels of non-exceedance (P90, P95 and P99), of the 1-minute mean wind speed, significant wave height and associated range of peak energy period based on Monte Carlo Simulations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key features<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recent developments in computational modelling and satellite measurements, have made it possible to have access to long-term reliable wave and wind data all around the world<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As noted in DNV Marine operations guideline DNV-ST-N001, using these long-term data sets, it is possible to develop tow route criteria with a specified risk of exceedance in a single tow by performing tow simulations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monte Carlo Simulations were used to derive Tow Route criteria as follows:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ECMWF ERA5 wave and wind data (from 1<sup>st<\/sup> January 1979 to 31<sup>st<\/sup> December 2021) was retrieved at each available hindcast point along the route (~100 points in total) and calibrated against satellite measurements<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For the specific departure date, the position of the vessel was estimated every 3-hours using the transport\u2019s reduced speed<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The month in which each waypoint of the route is crossed by the vessel was calculated and used to pick a random sample from the monthly wave and wind database at each point, creating a complete simulated voyage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This random process was repeated to create thousands of simulated voyages (10,000), and for each of them, the maximum wind and wave experienced along the route were retained<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The probability distribution of these tow-maxima was then used to determine the value with a specified risk of exceedance in a random tow (90<sup>th<\/sup> 95<sup>th<\/sup> and 99<sup>th <\/sup>in this case)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"832\" data-id=\"1047\" src=\"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website-1024x832.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1047\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website-1024x832.png 1024w, https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website-300x244.png 300w, https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website-768x624.png 768w, https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website-369x300.png 369w, https:\/\/cametocean.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/MOnteCarlo_ALL_Website.png 1304w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background Tow Route Criteria was required to assist in a transportation from India to Oman. Scope of work CA Metocean was appointed by Sea Delta &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":866,"parent":687,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1028","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1028"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1055,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1028\/revisions\/1055"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/687"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cametocean.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}